Tradelands Economic Update – February 2nd, 2024

The first month of 2024 sees the addition of $1.6 Billion in market activity. Like last year, some late additions to the Winter Event saw a boost in economic activity that lasted until around the middle of the month before the major indexes capped off at their highest points. The market seems to be in a steady state as we prepare for the upcoming year.

Festive Cape Values

Three new capes were released at the end of the Winter Event as a way for players to spend excess holiday tokens. Along with the tokens, players could alternatively purchase the capes for Premium Tokens. The trends seen so far this month indicate that players are using the Burkeland Cape as a measure of how to price it. At present, many sellers are pressing the capes to sell between $1 Million and $1.5 Million doubloons.

However, this trend is not based in reality of the market. As a result, players who are purchasing them with the expectation to use them as investments are not likely to see them increase in value for a while. If we use the Burkeland Capes as a comparison, there are several factors that led to them having the current price of $1.5 Million doubloons:

• Burkeland Capes have not been on sale for several years.
• Prices for Burkeland Capes matched their material value for 12 months before they started the increase towards their current price point.
• There are no easy to obtain alternatives for Burkeland Capes making it one of the only ways to showcase the faction in your house or on your avatar.

In other words, there are several unknowns that will make this a bad investment in the short term. First, the Festive Capes may go back on-sale next year. If they do, and if their price point remains at the same place it is today, then players will have lost 90% of their investment as soon the 2024 Winter Event starts. Moreover, it’s likely that this release wasn’t meant to be a point of investment for players, but more of a method for reducing the abundance of tickets that players obtained during the event since Festive Lights were the only other item placed at the vendor besides the daily items.

Electrosteel Returns

The beginning of February usually sees the end of the winter season in game. This season is notable for two things. First is the snow on the ground, and the second is the collection of Ice instead of Electrosteel. Moreover, the collection of Ice requires the use of Electrosteel, causing the market to see the most variation in price during this time.

As expected, buyer demand dominated the market in January. The buy point for Electrosteel ends the month at 7.5k per piece, with sellers standing firm at the 10k per piece. This indicates that the volume of available Electrosteel being sold was enough to meet demand, and inventory amounts remained high enough that no seller could corner the market and demand a price increase.

When Electrosteel comes back to the mining table, the value of Sapphire will go up and Electrosteel will return to it’s usual demand. Our market projections show, based on the performance during its typical high points, that Electrosteel is not likely to re-gain its former 10k per piece price point in 2024.

The Gramophone Crash

The Gramophone market saw a significant shakeup with the introduction of the Peppermint Gramophone. This market once sold consistently above $1M per item, and now it is closing the month at $425k. But all signs show that this is just an aging issue, with the trading price suggesting it will fall another $100k before it will be ready for stabilization.

The crash is due to a higher than expected drop rate from Winter Crates. In the past, Gramophones had a 1% drop rate whereas it was updated to 4% in December 2023. Unironically, the price is effectively heading towards a new price that is 1/4 the previous value. This might change in the future based on if the drop rate stays at 4% in future updates or if they change again. Either way, the Gramophone market is not considered a good investment choice for the time being due to the uncertainty on its future and the increase in volatility.

Nautilus Blueprint Stabilizing

Last month, the release of the Nautilus Blueprint saw an extreme rise in buyer demand that allowed the item to reach the apex of its value within the first month of its release. In January, we are already seeing that momentum decrease, meaning the market is shifting from a seller dominated market into a buyer dominated market.

In other words, the hype is over. In the past, this trend was an indicator that the list prices for the item are going to stabilize at its current value. After this, sellers typically begin offering discounts on the listed price in order to entice potential buyers to buy one. We expect the same trend to occur here, with players offering the blueprint for $1M and willing to drop the price by up to 15% if a buyer expresses interest. That means if you were lucky enough to get one for less than $850k, it’s now a safe bet to sell it for a decent profit.

Peppermint Guns

We are tracking the Peppermint Muskets and Pistols as a unique item. So far, we are not seeing any major trends that suggest players view these items unique to the standard muskets and pistols. They are currently trading at around 20k per gun, meaning there is no statistically significant difference in what players are paying.

In other words, this category may not remain as a separate item on the tracker for much longer. We typically give the item around 6 months to demonstrate some independent pricing trends. If it doesn’t, we will remove the item and instead direct players to use the consolidated category when looking at prices for the item.