Tradelands Economic Update – November 1st, 2023

The economy added nearly $500 Million in additional economic activity in October, with $1.56 Billion in activity throughout the month. The addition of new crate items, the re-introduction of Ghostship Vouchers, and the new figureheads have kept player activity higher than usual. This is the second major update that occured during Halloween and bodes well for the expectations that are being set for future October releases.

Ship Configuration Update

The biggest winner this year was the updates to ships. There weren’t any loud announcements about these changes which made them feel more like a normal expectation for the season. This helped to improve the overall impact that it had on players who were lucky enough to get one. Moreover, it gives confidence that this may start becoming a regular expectation of updates to come.

The first one to cover is the unprecedented number of figureheads that came out. To-date, there is an Albatross, Binglehopper, Brigand, Falchion, Ibis, and Sparrow figurehead which can be obtained by players. The Falchion and Ibis cannot be traded, but the others can. These are in effect wholistic cosmetic changes to the ships that use them, meaning they are well worth the asking price. Most of these figure heads opened up on the Price Guide trading at around $250k to $350k.

The second change was the addition of purple Ghostship Vouchers which can be redeemed for one of the new ships added this year – These are the Ibis, Falchion, Brigand, Mercury, Albatross, and Ceres. It’s worth noting that all of these ships except the Ceres now have a figurehead that can be used on them, making them good purchases. This is in stark contrast to our review of the Yellow Ghostship Vouchers last year where we indicated they are not worth the price. Instead, we are recommending these ships as a good purchase due to their cosmetic options, which is the main reason why you would want to purchase a Ghostship.

The survey conducted in the final week of October reveals that players also agree with this statement. This survey asked players to rate their favorite ship from this year, and then asked them if the ghostship variant was worth buying. This shows that players tended to rate ships in line with their cost. In other words, more expensive ships received higher ratings, a reverse of the trend that we saw in 2022 where more expensive ships received lower ratings.

In summary, this was a good year if you were saving up to purchase a Ghostship. Most players agree that the Purple Ghostship Voucher is a good purchase this year, especially if you manage to pick up a figurehead for the ship you are planning to get.

New Items Reach IPO

Several items reached Initial Public Offering (IPO) state this month. Nearly all of them are items from crates. We are still waiting on the Wicked Spyglass and Wicked Torch but all of the weapons have been added and are tracked on the Price Guide.

One of the most common trends during IPO is that items are typically overpriced on their initial introduction. This is why you see a similar sloping curve on nearly all items that are listed on the GISE for the first time. Most players will overvalue items when they are first obtained, and the slope of the curve is relative to how many of that item exist. The more of that item, the steeper the decline (unless the over-valuation was tempered to start) because you cannot corner a market. When an item remains in extremely limited quantities, the prices are more aligned towards the starting value of that item.

Items that were added in the 2022 Halloween release are an indicator of how well these items are likely to do in the long-run. In most cases, Figureheads do not retain value because any player who wants one only needs to obtain one item, and it doesn’t lose durability to it can be re-sold at any time. Weapons are dependent on their relative rarity, and since Executioner’s Axe received the highest level of availability in the crate releases, the current value of approximately $60k is expected to fall significantly, probably lower than the Pitchforks from last year which closed between 20k and 30k for most of 2023.

Expected Corrections

As we close out November, all eyes move towards the expectations for the Winter Event. November is typically slower since it occurs between the big releases in October and December, and as such its the month that typically sees the most number of price corrections.

One of the markets we traditionally see corrected in Winter is Electrosteel. This is because Electrosteel Pickaxes are a key component to Ice mining. However, this year there seems to be a consistently high volume of Electrosteel being sold by players. This causes the overall price to fall over time because buyers are able to locate sellers who sell at lower rates. This may change once winter starts because Electrosteel is no longer obtainable. If there are enough snow storms early in the season, this could clear out enough Electrosteel inventory to allow prices to increase. However, don’t expect the correction to happen immediately.

The other item to watch this winter will be the impact to Silver. This is the first year where this metal has seen an impact on it’s seasonal value. This occurs because using a Silver pickaxe during a rain storm will drop Yew. It remains to be seen if Yew will drop in winter, or if it will take the path that Electrosteel has taken where its use in a Pickaxe will drop a different, more valuable resource. If Yew follows the same path, we can expect to see some volatility to the prices for Silver.