The question is, how much is the shield actually worth? While it’s still to early to tell the market value of a shield, we are already able to calculate it’s material value. Today’s update is dedicated to helping people price this new addition to Tradelands so they can make a profit.
If you aren’t interested in all the raw calculations, the value of the Shield is between $220,535dbs and $621,555dbs, based on current market conditions.
If you look on the Price Guide today, you will see the IPO is being listed in that range. Traders, although still unsure of where to actually list it, are starting to reach the same conclusion on their own with the majority of offers falling in the 200k to 700k range. Buyer options go down as low as $100k, but this may be wishful thinking.
Explain the Math
If you exclude the perceived value of something (additional value based on cosmetics such as color/design), what you have left is the material cost to make/buy an item. In this case, the item is found in crates which cost Robux. Thankfully, Tradelands has a 1:1 exchange rate of Robux to Premium Tokens which we can use to calculate the material value. This is done through a process known as Valuation.
Whenever you open a crate, one of two things will always happen:
- You received an item in the crate which you can re-sell for doubloons 98% of the time.
- You received a shield that drops at 2% chance, if the rates provided by the developers are to be believed.
Using the Laws of Probability, we can then calculate the number of crates you have to open in order to receive a shield. Let’s say you want to give yourself a greater than 50/50 chance to get a shield. That means you have to open between 35 to 55 crates per the standard distribution of equal outcomes. We then calculate that cost in doubloons and we have our upper limits of cost per item:
|Result Type||Lower Limit||Upper Limit|
|Shield||$745,535 dbs||$1,171,555 dbs|
|Non-Shield||$16,301 dbs||$22,602 dbs|
Now we have to subtract any profit we made with the crates we opened and got an alternative item. This effectively lowers the cost of the shield because we received something of less value, but still of some value regardless. We can use the Earnings Index to find out how much these items are worth, which at the time of writing this is -1.27% below the listed price shown in the table above.
If you take all of this, and compare it to the current purchasing power of Premium Tokens, it comes out to the ranges listed below:
|Shield Valuation||Price in Doubloons|
|Minimum Price||$220,535 dbs|
|Maximum Price||$621,555 dbs|
In short, the Aukai shield, as well as the faction shields, should be traded on the market between $220k and $620k, with the cosmetic value of their materials/effects adding or subtracting from that overall price point. If it had been released when the market was at it’s peak in April, it would trade between $570,535 dbs and $1,188,055 dbs today.